China’s national swine industry system expects hog production in 2026 to remain only marginally profitable, with prices likely to stay weak in the first half before recovering in the second half. The report says the sector’s main challenge has shifted from production to consumption, as softer pork demand and a mismatch between supply and demand continue to pressure both smallholders and large-scale producers.
China’s pig sector may remain marginally profitable in 2026, with hog prices expected to start the year weak before improving later on. That is the view of China’s national swine industry technology system in its recent report reviewing the sector in 2025 and looking ahead to next year.
The report said that, excluding exceptional disruptions such as disease shocks and sentiment-driven volatility, hog prices in 2026 are likely to be low in the first half and higher in the second half.
Looking at the pace of capacity reduction in 2025 and the broader supply-demand balance, the report said supply in the first half of 2026 is still likely to be relatively ample. Combined with the post-Spring Festival consumption lull, that could push hog prices down to their lowest point of the year and leave producers facing temporary losses.
From late Q2, however, supply and demand are expected to gradually move back into better balance. That could allow prices to stabilise and start recovering. In the second half, stronger seasonal consumption is expected to provide further support, leaving room for producers to stay in the black.
Pressure shifts from production to consumption
According to monitoring data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), the country’s average 2025 prices for live pigs, piglets, and pork were CNY 14.44 per kg (USD 2.01 per kg), CNY 32.99 per kg (USD 4.60 per kg), and CNY 25.23 per kg (USD 3.51 per kg), respectively. That represented year-on-year declines of 9.2%, 15.4%, and 8.8%.
Based on those figures, the system estimated that average profit per hog marketed in China last year was CNY 31 (USD 4.32), down CNY 183 (USD 25.49) from 2024.
Yet while prices on the production side weakened, demand remained under pressure. Data jointly released by 5 government departments, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, showed that per-capita household pork consumption in China fell to 26.6 kg in 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year. It was the second straight annual decline, following a 7.8% drop in 2024.
The report said the main contradiction in China’s pig sector has now shifted from the production side to the consumption side. As household diets continue to evolve and substitute products become more widely available, pork demand is showing a structural decline. That is increasingly out of step with the pace at which production capacity is being released, making it harder to match supply with demand and weighing on overall industry efficiency.
Smaller farms under greater strain
That mismatch is hitting farm profitability directly. Smaller producers are exiting the sector more quickly as cash-flow problems intensify. Large-scale companies have more room to offset risk through futures hedging and by extending their value chains, but the report warned that prolonged weakness would still put them under significantly greater financial pressure.
To address softer pork demand, the report called for action on both the supply and demand sides. On the production side, it said leading companies should step up research and development and bring more value-added products to market, including chilled meat, prepared meat, and prepared pork dishes, to better match changing consumer demand for quality and convenience.
On the demand side, it called for stronger public communication about pork’s nutritional value to help guide consumers towards more science-based dietary choices and gradually rebuild confidence. It also recommended using price-control tools more appropriately, tightening market regulation, and linking supermarkets with wet markets for promotional campaigns to keep retail prices stable and unlock consumption potential.
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