Recent insights from Zheng Maiqing, chief analyst at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, highlight a notable shift in China’s white-feather broiler consumption patterns, increasingly resembling staple food habits. With per capita consumption expected to grow by 2.5% annually until 2030, both production and consumption are projected to rise. This change is driven by recent pandemic impacts on supply chains and evolving consumer preferences towards healthier, convenient options. Furthermore, the potential for significant improvements in feed conversion ratios underscores the white-feather broiler’s vital role in China’s agricultural future.
In recent years, China’s consumption of white-feather broiler chicken has undergone considerable transformations, as noted by Zheng Maiqing, chief analyst at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. A significant trend is the movement of certain products from side dishes to staple food status. This shift is anticipated to spur synchronized growth in both the production and consumption of white-feather broilers in the medium to long term.
Rising Consumption Rates
Zheng’s projections for chicken meat consumption growth in China, presented at the sixth VIV International Livestock Industry Innovation Development Summit co-hosted by AgriPost.CN earlier this month, have ignited discussions within the industry. While his forecast of an annual growth rate of 2.5% from 2020 to 2030 might seem “bold,” recent trends suggest that this estimate could be conservative.
From 2011, when national monitoring of white-feather broiler production commenced, until 2017, the annual output remained relatively stable. However, beginning in 2018, production surged from 4.5 billion birds to over 8 billion in 2023, achieving an average annual growth rate of approximately 15%.
Two pandemics have significantly influenced this growth. The African swine fever outbreak led to a substantial pork supply shortage, driving consumers towards the rapidly produced white-feather broiler as an alternative. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier and more convenient options, further boosting white-feather broiler chicken consumption.
Market Share and Production Efficiency
Prior to 2018, white-feather broiler accounted for less than 10% of China’s total meat production. Today, they represent nearly 20% of total production, with their slaughter volume comprising about 60% of all poultry. Zheng pointed out that the development of white-feather broiler chicken production in China has historically centered on “ensuring supply” and continues to do so.
The robust growth potential of white-feather broilers can be attributed to a comprehensive breeding system and a high level of industrialization within the livestock sector. However, the high concentration in the industry also leads to fierce competition and significant capital investments.
Industry Challenges and Opportunities
Zheng noted that over 30 registered parent stock farms for white-feather broilers exist in China, with approximately 2.1 million sets in stock. Despite this, overall productivity remains inadequate. Breeding farms produce close to 10 billion chicks annually, while processing capacity allows for around 10 billion birds to be slaughtered each year, indicating inefficiencies in production and processing.
With the official promotion of domestic white-feather broiler chicken breeds beginning in 2021, their market share has approached 40% in 2023. In terms of provincial production, Shandong and Liaoning lead the nation, with Shandong accounting for 40% of operational slaughter lines.
Shifting Consumption Patterns
The categorization of white-feather broiler products has diversified, with segments such as breast, leg, wing, and other parts marketed to meet consumer demands. Zheng identified five key trends in broiler chicken consumption: staple foods, low-fat options, snacks, fast food and pet food.
AgriPost.CN also agrees that Younger consumers are increasingly opting for chicken breast or larger cuts, reflecting a shift toward treating chicken as a staple rather than a side dish. The demand for low-fat options has made chicken breast a preferred choice for health-conscious consumers, while the growing pet food market also presents new sales opportunities for chicken meat.
Advancements in Production Techniques
Since 2015, key production metrics for white-feather broilers, such as feed conversion ratios and European efficiency indexes, have consistently improved, largely due to enhanced environmental control measures in cage farming. Currently, over 85% of broiler chickens in China are raised in cages.
National data indicate a significant increase in the average slaughter weight of broilers at 42 days, with feed conversion ratios decreasing to 1.59—an indicator of advanced production standards. New technologies, particularly in genomic breeding, are seen as critical to sustaining these improvements.
Future Prospects
Despite the progress, challenges remain, including difficulties in international breed imports and the pressing need for domestic breed development. AgriPost.CN also observes that rising prices of feed grains further highlight the necessity for promoting low-protein diets.
Looking ahead, Zheng believes the next five years will necessitate advancements in several technical areas, including the establishment of a comprehensive big data genomic breeding system, precise nutrition and feed alternatives, efficient disease control methods, and enhanced environmental management in farming.
He emphasized that the white-feather broiler industry in China is poised for substantial growth, given its superior feed conversion rates compared to other livestock. If all new meat consumption growth were to come from white-feather broilers, this could significantly reduce the demand for feed grains, thereby supporting increases in meat consumption and national food security.
Currently, the average feed conversion ratio for broiler chickens stands at 1.6, with exceptional cases recorded below 1.3. Zheng believes that achieving a feed conversion ratio of 1.0 is theoretically feasible, as a significant portion of chicken composition consists of water, necessitating less dry matter conversion from feed.
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