In 2024, China’s pig sector returned to profitability, driven by rising pork prices and falling feed costs. Industry leaders like Muyuan and Wens attributed 40–50% of their cost savings to cheaper feed. With ASF largely under control, focus has shifted to smarter production—through genetics, nutrition, and digital tools. Despite concerns over oversupply in 2025, producers are banking on operational efficiency and tech-driven strategies to stay competitive.
After facing a tough 2023, China’s pig industry made an impressive recovery in 2024. Once ranked among the “Top 10 Struggling Industries” by Caijing Magazine, the sector rebounded to claim a spot in the “Top 10 Thriving Industries” just a year later.
According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, average profit per slaughter pig rose to CNY 214 (approx. USD 29.40)—a sharp turnaround from 2023 and an improvement of CNY 290 (approx. USD 39.80) year-on-year.
Two main factors underpinned this swing back into the black: higher pork prices and notably lower feed costs. Average live hog prices climbed 10.9% to CNY 17.08/kg (USD 2.35/kg), while prices for corn and soybean meal fell by 17.6% and 24.3% respectively, significantly easing production costs.
Feed costs: a hidden profit driver
While rising pig prices carried most of the weight, reduced feed costs played a crucial role. Rough estimates suggest that about a third of the profit increase—nearly CNY 100 (USD 14) per head—can be attributed directly to cheaper feed.
Top producers such as Muyuan and Wens Group publicly broke down their cost gains. Muyuan credited 50% of its production cost savings to lower feed prices, while Wens reported a 40% contribution from feed and raw material cost reductions, with the remaining 60% coming from improvements in operational efficiency.
The feed component becomes even more critical in piglet production, especially under both corporate-owned and contract farming models. Across the board, feed remains one of the most volatile cost variables—and one of the most influential.
Looking ahead to 2025: caution warranted
Despite healthy profits in 2024, clouds are forming on the horizon. The Ministry of Agriculture has raised red flags about overcapacity, pointing to high sow inventories and large volumes of piglets and finishing pigs.
In response, authorities have encouraged producers to reduce sow bodyweights and cull underperforming stock to prevent another boom-bust cycle. This guidance, combined with market uncertainty, triggered widespread early slaughtering ahead of the Spring Festival as farmers aimed to lock in profits before any potential downturn.
Still, renewed interest in outsourced production models has emerged in provinces like Shandong, where dormant farms left over from past disease outbreaks are being brought back into production—driving up short-term piglet demand.
At the same time, volatility in global grain markets—largely driven by geopolitical instability—is complicating longer-term profitability planning.
Zhu Zengyong, chief pork analyst at the China Agricultural Research Institute, expects pig supply to rise in 2025, potentially driving down prices by 10–20%. Even so, he believes the sector could retain “modest profitability.” Wens Group remains relatively upbeat, citing efficiency and cost control as key to staying ahead of industry averages.
Smarter farming takes centre stage
With African Swine Fever (ASF) largely under control, production disparities between farms have narrowed. The focus is now shifting from disease mitigation to smarter, efficiency-led strategies—including genetics, precision feeding, and digital farm management.
Global agribusiness player Cargill is actively rolling out these tools. Its “Cargill Pig Breeding Alliance,” launched in 2022, now includes over 100 domestic breeding partners, offering integrated breeding and nutrition programmes tailored to genetic profiles.
In February 2025, Cargill unveiled its “Spring Sprint for PSY30+” initiative. The goal: push producers toward 36 piglets per sow annually and an integrated value of CNY 10/kg (USD 1.4/kg), even in challenging price environments. The campaign is underpinned by technical support from Cargill’s 26 feed mills and thousands of field experts, and is linked to its “Shujuzhuan Jia®” data platform—designed to optimise pigs per sow per year (PSY) through actionable digital insights.
“Each Cargill employee must focus on value-based service,” noted Quan Taiyong, managing director of Cargill’s swine feed division in China. “By improving both our technical support and operational efficiency, we can deliver more value to our customers.”
